Fuel Prices and Inflation: 5-Year Evolution and End-of-2026 Forecasts
Between 2021 and mid-2026, fuel prices have been on a rollercoaster: historic peak in 2022 above €2/L, strong drop in 2024-2025, then a sharp rebound in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions. Overall inflation followed this volatility. This article reviews the concrete figures and gives you actionable ways to protect your fuel budget.
Fuel Prices and Inflation: 5-Year Evolution and End-of-2026 Forecasts
The price at the pump is one of those expenses that directly hits our wallets. Between geopolitical crises, inflation, and the energy transition, fuel prices have been anything but stable in recent years. In this article, we look at the real figures from the past 5 years and what to expect by the end of 2026.
Fuel Price Evolution from 2021 to mid-2026
Prices have shown strong volatility, largely driven by crude oil prices and global events (war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East).
| Period | Average SP95-E10 (€/L) | Average Diesel (€/L) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | \~1.55 – 1.70 | \~1.40 – 1.60 | Post-Covid recovery |
| 2022 (peak) | 2.00 – 2.13 | 2.00 – 2.10+ | War in Ukraine |
| 2023 | \~1.80 – 1.95 | \~1.70 – 1.90 | Strong fluctuations |
| 2024-2025 | \~1.65 – 1.80 | \~1.55 – 1.70 | Gradual decline |
| 2026 (early) | 1.68 – 2.00+ | 1.65 – 2.26 (April) | Rebound due to geopolitical tensions |
Source: INSEE, French Ministry of Ecological Transition, and fuel price observatories.
In short: After a historic peak in 2022, prices fell in 2024-2025 before rising sharply again in 2026 (up to +20-30% in some periods due to conflicts in the Middle East).
The Direct Link with Inflation in France
Energy and fuel have a heavy weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). When the pump price rises, inflation follows:
- 2022: Inflation at +5.2% (fuel peak + widespread inflation).
- 2023: +4.9%.
- 2024: +2.0%.
- 2025: +0.9% (calmer period).
- 2026: Rebound to \~1.7-2.4% in spring, with government revising the annual forecast to 1.9% due to energy costs.
Sudden fuel increases also push up transport costs, goods, and indirectly services.
Forecasts for the End of 2026
Analysts remain cautious:
- Brent crude remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions.
- Stabilization or a slight decrease is possible by year-end if the international situation calms down (winter season + lower demand).
- Most probable scenario: prices around €1.80 – €2.10/L depending on the fuel type, with energy inflation likely staying above average.
- Factors to watch: carbon tax, euro/dollar exchange rate, OPEC+ production.
→ **Tankly Tip**: Use our comparator regularly to find the best prices near you and smooth out your budget.
How to Protect Your Fuel Budget in 2026?
- Adopt eco-driving habits: Easy 10 to 20% savings.
- Compare before every fill-up with Tankly.
- Choose the right fuel (E10, E85 if compatible, etc.).
- Regular maintenance: tires, filters, pressure.
- Anticipate: fill up when prices drop (often early in the week or after sudden rises).
- Consider carpooling, teleworking, or alternatives for daily trips.
Conclusion
Fuel remains an unpredictable variable tied to inflation and geopolitics. By staying informed and using the right tools, we can limit the impact on our budget. At Tankly, we continue to provide you with the lowest real-time prices so every fill-up costs as little as possible.
What do you think? Have you noticed a strong increase in recent months? Share your experience in the comments!
Article updated on 09/06/2026 – Sources: INSEE, French government fuel price data.